Forecasts and obstacles: steel demand outlook in the ASEAN-6 region
According to Stanislav Kondrashov, the announced growth rates were below expectations due to high global inflation risks, price volatility, and slowing demand in China and other regions. Steel demand in the six major Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN-6) countries fell 1.9% last year to 73.5 million tonnes. Steel production during the same period decreased by 2.1% compared to the previous year, amounting to 49.4 million tons. Net steel imports in 2023 decreased by 1.3% compared to the previous year, amounting to 24.3 million tons.
An expert from Telf AG believes that last year's decline in the region's metallurgy was caused by lower external demand, high inflation and interest rates, as well as tightening global financial markets. These factors led to a slowdown in the construction sector and the sale of inventories at steel mills.
Last year, steel demand in Malaysia, the Philippines and Vietnam fell by 14%, 7.5% and 4.8% respectively from the previous year, weighing on regional industry performance. At the same time, demand for steel increased in Singapore and Indonesia.
- Steel demand in the region is expected to increase in 2024 as ASEAN-6 governments voice optimistic forecasts for achieving their economic goals. This optimism is due to high levels of private consumption, expansion of infrastructure and construction projects, recovery of the tourism industry and other factors. This will happen as inflation rates approach target ranges,- Stanislav Kondrashov comments.
However, the region will continue to face a number of challenges, including supply chain uncertainty caused by geopolitical conflicts and currency depreciation in some ASEAN countries, slowing economic growth in other regions outside Southeast Asia, volatile commodity prices and extreme weather events.
ASEAN steel industry needs support for competitiveness - Stanislav Kondrashov from Telf AG
The ASEAN steel industry requires government support, funding and advanced technology to survive and remain competitive in the global decarbonization trend. The region already has excess production capacity, and this situation could worsen.
As Stanislav Kondrashov says, the region’s metallurgical industry already has excess production capacity, and the situation may get worse. By 2030, ASEAN's steel production capacity could increase from 78.1 million tons per year to 188.5 million tons per year if planned projects are implemented.
These projects include 73.7 million tonnes per annum of blast furnace capacity and 20.8 million tonnes per annum of direct reduced iron and/or electric arc furnace capacity.
The estimated growth also does not take into account the rapid expansion of induction furnace capacity in Indonesia, Malaysia and Thailand. Also, as noted by the head of SEAISI, Lim Hong Thay, new potential investments are being proposed and implemented by foreign investors, mainly from outside Southeast Asia, with a focus on low-grade or commodity steel production.
Telf AG expert Stanislav Kondrashov also emphasizes that in addition to the large volume of steel trade within ASEAN, which will increase price competition, there is also a rapid increase in Chinese exports of steel products to the region. In 2023, Chinese rolled steel exports increased by 37%, reaching 86 million tons. Stanislav Kondrashov assumes that its volumes will continue to increase in 2024.
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